California big game — real draw odds
Every California deer zone, elk and pronghorn draw hunt, from CDFW's own tag quotas and applicant counts. One honest caveat: CDFW runs a single draw pool — residents and nonresidents compete together — so these odds are for all applicants, not a nonresident-only number.
oddsPct = tag quota ÷ total 1st-choice applicants per hunt (one pool, all residencies). ~90% of tags go to the preference-point draw, ~10% random.
View CDFW drawing statistics ↗How California works
Preference points (~90/10 split)
California's big-game draw gives roughly 90% of each hunt's tags to the highest preference-point applicants and draws the last ~10% randomly — one pool for residents and nonresidents alike, so the published odds apply to everyone.
Earn one preference point per species each year you apply unsuccessfully as your first choice (or buy a point-only application).
wildlife.ca.gov · verified 2026 ↗Apply with the point-only code (e.g. PD for deer) to bank a point without entering.
wildlife.ca.gov · verified 2026 ↗Nonresidents pay steep tag fees but draw in the same pool with the same odds — no NR quota carve-out in the published statistics.
wildlife.ca.gov · verified 2026 ↗Elk and pronghorn points climb slowly: some premium hunts issue 1-2 tags against thousands of applicants.
wildlife.ca.gov · verified 2026 ↗What you can hunt in California
Green = no draw needed (the fast way in).OIL = once-in-a-lifetime.
Premium X-zones are draw-only; A/B/D zone tags sell until quotas fill.
Coastal A and B zones — tags over the counter until sold out.
Tule, Roosevelt & Rocky Mtn elk — all limited draw, very few tags.
Northeastern zones only — limited draw.
Desert bighorn — once-in-a-lifetime class draw.
General tag with a statewide quota.
Year-round, tags over the counter — California's everyman hunt.
General spring/fall seasons.
By draw odds
Best odds first
| Zone / area | Hunt | Draw odds | Success | Public land |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | C Zones General Seasons - Buck | 100% | 20% | 30.8% |
| D14 | Zone D14 Archery and General Seasons - Buck | 100% | 13% | 53.6% |
| C | Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck | 100% | 20% | 30.8% |
| X9B | Archery Hunt In Zone X9B - Buck | 100% | 29% | 87.2% |
| X10 | X-10 Late Season Buck - General Methods | 100% | 10% | 94.8% |
| San Diego | San Diego Muzzleloading Rifle Either-Sex | 100% | — | — |
| San Luis Obispo | San Luis Obispo Muzzleloading Rifle/Archery Either-Sex | 100% | — | — |
| Santa Barbara | Santa Barbara Muzzleloading Rifle/Archery Buck | 100% | — | — |
| Ventura | Ventura Muzzleloading Rifle Either-Sex | 93.2% | — | — |
| X10 | Zone X10 General Season - Buck | 91.7% | 10% | 94.8% |
| D12 | Zone D12 Archery and General Seasons - Buck | 88.1% | 18% | 68.5% |
| X3B | Archery Hunt In Zone X3B - Buck | 85.4% | 31% | 62.5% |
| C4 | Late Season Buck Hunt in Zone C4 - General Methods | 70.3% | 20% | 33.6% |
| D17 | Zone D17 Archery and General Seasons - Buck | 66.5% | 20% | 60.4% |
| X9C | Zone X9C General Season - Buck | 62.4% | 19% | 85.3% |
| San Diego | San Diego Antlerless - General Methods | 59.4% | — | — |
| X7A | Archery Hunt In Zone X7A - Buck | 57.7% | 22% | 52.9% |
| Monterey | Monterey Archery Either-Sex | 56.5% | — | — |
| X4 | Archery Hunt In Zone X4 - Buck | 50.2% | 36% | 61% |
| X9B | Zone X9B General Season - Buck | 49.7% | 29% | 87.2% |
| X8 | Archery Hunt In Zone X8 - Buck | 49.4% | 21% | 87.6% |
| X6B | Archery Hunt In Zone X6B - Buck | 44.1% | 44% | 72.2% |
| X3B | Zone X3B General Season - Buck | 39.4% | 31% | 62.5% |
| X3A | Archery Hunt In Zone X3A - Buck | 36.4% | 52% | 51.2% |
| X4 | Zone X4 General Season - Buck | 36.3% | 36% | 61% |
| X1 | Archery Hunt In Zone X1 - Buck | 34.6% | 39% | 66.7% |
| Fort Hunter Liggett | Fort Hunter Liggett Late Season Archery Either-Sex | 33.8% | — | — |
| Lake Sonoma | Lake Sonoma Archery Either-Sex | 33.7% | — | — |
| X5A | Archery Hunt In Zone X5A - Buck | 30.3% | 58% | 72.1% |
| X6B | Zone X6B General Season - Buck | 29.5% | 44% | 72.2% |
| X1 | Zone X1 General Season - Buck | 26.4% | 39% | 66.7% |
| X7B | Archery Hunt In Zone X7B - Buck | 25.5% | 18% | 57% |
| X7B | Zone X7B General Season - Buck | 25.4% | 18% | 57% |
| X2 | Archery Hunt In Zone X2 - Buck | 25% | 47% | 76.9% |
| X8 | Zone X8 General Season - Buck | 22.9% | 21% | 87.6% |
| Ventana Wilderness | Ventana Wilderness Buck - General Methods | 21.9% | — | — |
| X7A | Zone X7A General Season - Buck | 21.6% | 22% | 52.9% |
| X3A | Zone X3A General Season - Buck | 20.7% | 52% | 51.2% |
| Gray Lodge Shotgun | Gray Lodge Shotgun Either-Sex | 20.3% | — | — |
| Horse Lake | Horse Lake Muzzleloading Rifle Buck | 19.6% | — | — |
| X12 | Archery Hunt In Zone X12 - Buck | 16.9% | 40% | 83.7% |
| Anderson Flat | Anderson Flat Archery Buck | 16% | — | — |
| X6A | Archery Hunt In Zone X6A - Buck | 15.2% | 60% | 47.3% |
| X2 | Zone X2 General Season - Buck | 14.4% | 47% | 76.9% |
| X5A | Zone X5A General Season - Buck | 13.6% | 58% | 72.1% |
| Covelo | Covelo Archery Buck | 13.4% | — | — |
| X6A | Zone X6A General Season - Buck | 12.6% | 60% | 47.3% |
| Bass Hill | Bass Hill Muzzleloading Rifle Buck | 12.4% | — | — |
| X9A | Archery Hunt In Zone X9A - Buck | 11.2% | 56% | 84% |
| X12 | Zone X12 General Season - Buck | 8.7% | 40% | 83.7% |
| X9A | Zone X9A General Season - Buck | 8.4% | 56% | 84% |
| Sutter-Yuba Wildlife Areas - Shotgun//Crossbow | Sutter-Yuba Wildlife Areas Either-Sex - Shotgun/Archery/Crossbow | 6.9% | — | — |
| X5B | Archery Hunt In Zone X5B - Buck | 6.8% | 62% | 72.9% |
| Kern River Deer Herd | Kern River Deer Herd Buck - General Methods | 6.1% | — | — |
| Bass Hill | Bass Hill Archery Buck | 5.9% | — | — |
| Devil's Garden | Devil's Garden Archery Buck | 5.7% | — | — |
| East Lassen | East Lassen Muzzleloading Rifle Buck | 5.3% | — | — |
| Doyle | Doyle Muzzleloading Rifle Buck | 3.5% | — | — |
| D7 | D7 Late Season Buck Hunt | 2.9% | 12% | 56.2% |
| Northwestern California | Northwestern California Muzzleloading Rifle Buck | 2.8% | — | — |
| Devil's Garden | Devil's Garden Muzzleloading Rifle Buck | 2.6% | — | — |
| X5B | Zone X5B General Season - Buck | 1.9% | 62% | 72.9% |
| Anderson Flat | Anderson Flat Buck - General Methods | 1% | — | — |
| Goodale | Goodale Buck - General Methods | 0.6% | — | — |
| Round Valley | Round Valley Late Season Buck - General Methods | 0.3% | — | — |
Draw odds are real (WDFW 2025 permit statistics — permits issued ÷ total applicants per hunt; residencies pooled). Harvest success is real (same tables — pooled hunters ÷ harvest per hunt area). Public-land % is real where a hunt area matches an official WDFW GMU boundary (federal land only — California's big DNR state-trust holdings would push real access higher); ranch, damage, and multi-GMU hunts show no boundary rather than a wrong one.