● Real AZGFD data · via draw-report PDFazgfd.com · species roster verified 2026 ↗
Arizona big game — real draw odds
Every nonresident elk and pronghorn hunt in Arizona's draw, computed from the actual applicant and permit counts AZGFD publishes. Nonresidents are capped at roughly 10% of permits per hunt, so these odds run lean — we show them honestly.
SourceArizona Game and Fish Department · 2025 Elk/Pronghorn Draw Report (1-2 Pass)
As of 2025 draw. Parsed from the published PDF; hunts mapped to units via the FINAL 2024 harvest questionnaires.
nrOddsPct = NR permits issued ÷ NR first-choice applicants, per hunt number. AZ caps NR at ~10% of permits.
View AZGFD harvest & draw reports ↗195
Elk hunts (NR)
81
≥25% NR odds
28
<5% (longshots)
How Arizona works
Bonus points (20% bonus pass)
Arizona is a bonus-point draw: 20% of each hunt's permits go to the highest-point applicants first, then the rest draw randomly by choice order — points stack the deck but never guarantee, and a 0-point hunter can still hit.
Earning points
Earn one bonus point per species each year you apply and don't draw, plus a permanent hunter-ed point and a loyalty point for applying five consecutive years.
azgfd.com · verified 2026 ↗How it skews
Nonresidents are capped at roughly 10% of permits per hunt — NR odds run far below resident odds on the same hunt.
azgfd.com · verified 2026 ↗When points reset
Bonus points for a species reset when you draw that species' permit.
azgfd.com · verified 2026 ↗What you can hunt in Arizona
Green = no draw needed (the fast way in).OIL = once-in-a-lifetime.
ElkDraw
Limited draw — Arizona bulls are among the biggest in the country.
Mule DeerDrawOTC
Draw hunts plus OTC archery deer in many units.
Coues WhitetailDrawOTC
The desert whitetail — draw rifle hunts, OTC archery.
PronghornDraw
Limited draw — very few tags, long waits.
Black BearOTCDraw
Mostly OTC with per-unit harvest limits; some draw hunts.
JavelinaDrawOTC
Spring draw plus OTC archery — a uniquely Arizona hunt.
TurkeyDrawOTC
Spring draw plus some OTC archery.
BisonOILDraw
House Rock and Raymond herds — once-in-a-lifetime class tags.
Desert BighornOILDraw
Once-in-a-lifetime.
Rocky Mtn BighornOILDraw
Once-in-a-lifetime.
Mountain LionOTC
OTC tag, year-round in most units.
By nonresident draw odds
Best odds first
| Unit | Hunt | Season | NR odds | Success | Public land |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3053 | General Antlerless | 100% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 10 | 3054 | General Antlerless | 100% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 15A, 15B and 18A | 3055 | General Antlerless | 100% | 39% | 44.6% |
| 17A, 17B, 18B, 19B, 20A and 20C | 3074 | Limited Opportunity Bull | 100% | 38% | 36.8% |
| 1 (Antelope Mountain) | 3077 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 100% | 83% | 76.1% |
| 2A and 2B | 3078 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 100% | 57% | 16.7% |
| 2A and 2B | 3079 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 100% | 57% | 16.7% |
| 17A, 17B, 18B, 19B, 20A and 20C | 3084 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 100% | 38% | 36.8% |
| 17A, 17B, 18B, 19B, 20A and 20C | 3085 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 100% | 38% | 36.8% |
| 27 (Black Mountain) | 3086 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 100% | 20% | 91.4% |
| 3B and 3C (Show Low Creek) | 3118 | Limited Opportunity (HAM) Antlerless | 100% | 55% | 53.9% |
| 6A | 3156 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 100% | 50% | 93.7% |
| 23 | 3165 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 100% | 39% | 98.1% |
| 4B | 3171 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 100% | 36% | 28% |
| 5A | 3172 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 100% | 46% | 40.5% |
| 6B | 3176 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 100% | 36% | 75.8% |
| 10 | 3180 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 100% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 11M | 3182 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 100% | 36% | 66.6% |
| 23 | 3184 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 100% | 39% | 98.1% |
| 16A | 3188 | Archery-Only Any Elk | 100% | 36% | 75% |
| 28, 31 and 32 | 3191 | Limited Opportunity (Archery-Only) Any Elk | 100% | 0% | — |
| CN | 3901 | General Antlerless | 100% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3907 | General Antlerless | 100% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3921 | Muzzleloader Antlerless | 100% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3925 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 100% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3934 | Archery-Only Any Elk | 100% | 41% | — |
| 7 West | 3048 | General Antlerless | 90.9% | 35% | 79.8% |
| 8 | 3110 | Muzzleloader Antlerless | 90% | 32% | 93.3% |
| 8 | 3179 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 88.9% | 32% | 93.3% |
| 7 East | 3045 | General Antlerless | 88.2% | 29% | 52.4% |
| 9 | 3051 | General Antlerless | 85.3% | 39% | 48.2% |
| 6B | 3044 | General Antlerless | 75% | 36% | 75.8% |
| 5B North | 3173 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 75% | 45% | 51.4% |
| 5B South | 3174 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 75% | 49% | 98.2% |
| 7 East | 3177 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 73.3% | 29% | 52.4% |
| 17A, 17B, 18B, 19B, 20A and 20C | 3091 | Limited Opportunity Any Elk | 68.8% | 38% | 36.8% |
| 1 (Antelope Mountain) | 3076 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 66.7% | 83% | 76.1% |
| 22 South | 3164 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 66.7% | 52% | 95.5% |
| 6A | 3175 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 62.5% | 50% | 93.7% |
| 11M | 3181 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 62.5% | 36% | 66.6% |
| 9 | 3070 | Youth-Only (General) | 59.3% | 39% | 48.2% |
| 4A | 3066 | Youth-Only (General) | 58.8% | 39% | 43.1% |
| 9 | 3052 | General Antlerless | 58.3% | 39% | 48.2% |
| 3B | 3108 | Muzzleloader Antlerless | 57.1% | 54% | 28.4% |
| 6A | 3109 | Muzzleloader Antlerless | 57.1% | 50% | 93.7% |
| 5A | 3153 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 57.1% | 46% | 40.5% |
| 24A | 3092 | Limited Opportunity Any Elk | 57% | 56% | 74.6% |
| 7 West | 3178 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 53.8% | 35% | 79.8% |
| 7 East (Kachina) | 3047 | General Antlerless | 51.9% | 57% | 52.4% |
| 19A | 3056 | General Antlerless | 50% | 9% | 54% |
| 2A and 2B | 3080 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 50% | 57% | 16.7% |
| 5B North | 3154 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 50% | 45% | 51.4% |
| CN | 3932 | Archery-Only Any Elk | 50% | 41% | — |
| 16A | 3111 | Muzzleloader Any Elk | 47.4% | 36% | 75% |
| 7 East | 3158 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 45.5% | 29% | 52.4% |
| 6A | 3043 | General Antlerless | 44.4% | 50% | 93.7% |
| 3B | 3104 | Muzzleloader Bull | 44.4% | 54% | 28.4% |
| 6A | 3097 | CHAMP | 42.9% | 50% | 93.7% |
| CN | 3931 | Archery-Only Any Elk | 42.9% | 41% | — |
| 7 West | 3069 | Youth-Only (General) | 42.6% | 35% | 79.8% |
| 7 West | 3159 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 41.7% | 35% | 79.8% |
| 17A, 17B, 18B, 19B, 20A and 20C | 3189 | Limited Opportunity (Archery-Only) Bull | 41.7% | 38% | 36.8% |
| 7 West | 3049 | General Antlerless | 40% | 35% | 79.8% |
| 4B | 3152 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 40% | 36% | 28% |
| 3A and 3C | 3168 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 40% | 39% | 39.9% |
| 27 | 3185 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 40% | 59% | 91.4% |
| CN | 3923 | Muzzleloader Any Elk | 40% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3930 | Archery-Only Any Elk | 40% | 41% | — |
| 5B South and 6A | 3068 | Youth-Only (General) | 39.3% | 74% | 94.6% |
| 3A (Zeniff) and 4B (Dry Lake) | 3090 | Limited Opportunity Any Elk | 38.9% | 53% | 21.7% |
| 27 (Alpine) | 3187 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 33.3% | 28% | 91.4% |
| CN | 3917 | General Any Elk | 33.3% | 41% | — |
| 6B | 3019 | General Bull | 31.2% | 36% | 75.8% |
| 1 and 2C | 3064 | Youth-Only (General) | 31.2% | 100% | 57% |
| 10 | 3071 | Youth-Only (General) | 31% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 1, 2B and 2C | 3035 | General Antlerless | 29.4% | 72% | 35.5% |
| 23 | 3061 | General Antlerless | 29.4% | 39% | 98.1% |
| 8 | 3050 | General Antlerless | 29.3% | 32% | 93.3% |
| 4A | 3014 | General Bull | 25% | 39% | 43.1% |
| 5B South | 3155 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 25% | 49% | 98.2% |
| 6B | 3157 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 25% | 36% | 75.8% |
| 27 | 3033 | General Bull | 22.2% | 59% | 91.4% |
| 8 | 3160 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 21.7% | 32% | 93.3% |
| 7 West | 3021 | General Bull | 21.3% | 35% | 79.8% |
| 10 | 3098 | CHAMP | 21.1% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 4B | 3039 | General Antlerless | 20.7% | 36% | 28% |
| 22 North | 3028 | General Bull | 20.6% | 39% | 95.5% |
| 3A and 3C | 3013 | General Bull | 20.2% | 39% | 39.9% |
| 21 | 3027 | General Bull | 20.1% | 16% | 68.7% |
| 3A and 3C | 3037 | General Antlerless | 20% | 39% | 39.9% |
| 1 (Coon Canyon and Flat Top) | 3112 | Limited Opportunity (HAM) Antlerless | 20% | 50% | 76.1% |
| 27 | 3166 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 19.8% | 59% | 91.4% |
| 2A and 2B | 3089 | Limited Opportunity Any Elk | 19.4% | 57% | 16.7% |
| 4B | 3015 | General Bull | 19.3% | 36% | 28% |
| 15A, 15B and 18A | 3025 | General Bull | 18.8% | 39% | 44.6% |
| 22 South | 3060 | General Antlerless | 18.8% | 52% | 95.5% |
| 5B South | 3042 | General Antlerless | 18.6% | 49% | 98.2% |
| 1, 2B and 2C | 3012 | General Bull | 18.5% | 72% | 35.5% |
| 2A and 2B | 3088 | Limited Opportunity Any Elk | 17.5% | 57% | 16.7% |
| 5A | 3016 | General Bull | 17.3% | 46% | 40.5% |
| 1 (Escudilla-Auger Canyon) | 3034 | General Antlerless | 17% | 66% | 76.1% |
| 5A | 3040 | General Antlerless | 16.7% | 46% | 40.5% |
| 4B | 3096 | CHAMP | 16.7% | 36% | 28% |
| 6A | 3105 | Muzzleloader Bull | 15.3% | 50% | 93.7% |
| 23 | 3062 | General Antlerless | 14.7% | 39% | 98.1% |
| 10 | 3024 | General Bull | 14.5% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 22 | 3072 | Youth-Only (General) | 14.3% | 83% | 95.5% |
| 6A | 3101 | Muzzleloader Bull | 14.3% | 50% | 93.7% |
| CN | 3912 | General Any Elk | 13.9% | 41% | — |
| 5A | 3067 | Youth-Only (General) | 13.8% | 46% | 40.5% |
| 6A | 3018 | General Bull | 13.7% | 50% | 93.7% |
| 5B North | 3041 | General Antlerless | 13.6% | 45% | 51.4% |
| 7 East | 3020 | General Bull | 13.4% | 29% | 52.4% |
| 1, 2B and 2C | 3099 | Muzzleloader Bull | 12.5% | 72% | 35.5% |
| 15A, 15B and 18A | 3143 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 12.3% | 39% | 44.6% |
| 7 West | 3137 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 11.8% | 35% | 79.8% |
| 5B | 3017 | General Bull | 11.7% | 42% | 67.7% |
| 7 East | 3135 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 11.2% | 29% | 52.4% |
| 1, 2B and 2C | 3036 | General Antlerless | 11.1% | 72% | 35.5% |
| 11M | 3142 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 10.7% | 36% | 66.6% |
| 9 | 3161 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 10.5% | 39% | 48.2% |
| 6B | 3134 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 9.7% | 36% | 75.8% |
| 22 North | 3029 | General Bull | 9.1% | 39% | 95.5% |
| 4A | 3151 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 9.1% | 39% | 43.1% |
| CN | 3918 | General Any Elk | 9.1% | 41% | — |
| 27 | 3063 | General Antlerless | 9% | 59% | 91.4% |
| 21 | 3145 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 8.3% | 16% | 68.7% |
| 7 East (Kachina) | 3136 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 8% | 57% | 52.4% |
| 10 | 3162 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 8% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 5B South | 3132 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 7.8% | 49% | 98.2% |
| 19A | 3026 | General Bull | 7.7% | 9% | 54% |
| 1, 2B and 2C | 3167 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 7.7% | 72% | 35.5% |
| 5B North | 3131 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 7.3% | 45% | 51.4% |
| 9 | 3023 | General Bull | 7.1% | 39% | 48.2% |
| 4A | 3128 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 7.1% | 39% | 43.1% |
| 5A | 3130 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 7% | 46% | 40.5% |
| 21 | 3058 | General Antlerless | 6.9% | 16% | 68.7% |
| 27 | 3032 | General Bull | 6.5% | 59% | 91.4% |
| 19A | 3144 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 6.5% | 9% | 54% |
| 22 South | 3103 | Muzzleloader Bull | 6.2% | 52% | 95.5% |
| 8 | 3022 | General Bull | 6.1% | 32% | 93.3% |
| 10 | 3106 | Muzzleloader Bull | 6.1% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 17A, 17B, 18B, 19B, 20A and 20C | 3190 | Limited Opportunity (Archery-Only) Antlerless | 6% | 38% | 36.8% |
| 22 | 3146 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 5.6% | 83% | 95.5% |
| 3A and 3C | 3065 | Youth-Only (General) | 5.3% | 39% | 39.9% |
| 9 | 3139 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 5.2% | 39% | 48.2% |
| 6A | 3133 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 4.5% | 50% | 93.7% |
| 23 North | 3147 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 4.5% | 68% | 98.1% |
| 8 | 3138 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 4.4% | 32% | 93.3% |
| 1, 2B and 2C | 3150 | Archery-Only Bull, Late | 3.5% | 72% | 35.5% |
| 23 | 3031 | General Bull | 3.3% | 39% | 98.1% |
| 4B | 3129 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 3.3% | 36% | 28% |
| 23 | 3073 | Youth-Only (General) | 2.6% | 39% | 98.1% |
| 15A, 15B and 18A | 3007 | General Bull | 2.2% | 39% | 44.6% |
| 3B | 3100 | Muzzleloader Bull | 2.1% | 54% | 28.4% |
| 27 | 3011 | General Bull | 1.8% | 59% | 91.4% |
| 22 South | 3030 | General Bull | 1.7% | 52% | 95.5% |
| 3B | 3107 | Muzzleloader Antlerless | 1.5% | 54% | 28.4% |
| 22 North | 3008 | General Bull | 1.2% | 39% | 95.5% |
| 3B | 3127 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 1.2% | 54% | 28.4% |
| 3A and 3C | 3126 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 1.1% | 39% | 39.9% |
| 6B | 3004 | General Bull | 0.9% | 36% | 75.8% |
| 11M | 3141 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 0.8% | 36% | 66.6% |
| 5B | 3003 | General Bull | 0.5% | 42% | 67.7% |
| 9 | 3005 | General Bull | 0.5% | 39% | 48.2% |
| 10 | 3140 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 0.4% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 27 | 3149 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 0.4% | 59% | 91.4% |
| 7 East (Kachina) | 3102 | Muzzleloader Bull | 0.3% | 57% | 52.4% |
| 23 South | 3148 | Archery-Only Bull, Early | 0.3% | 65% | 98.1% |
| 3A and 3C | 3001 | General Bull | 0.2% | 39% | 39.9% |
| 4B | 3002 | General Bull | 0.2% | 36% | 28% |
| 10 | 3006 | General Bull | 0.1% | 29% | 8.1% |
| 23 North | 3009 | General Bull | 0.1% | 68% | 98.1% |
| 23 South | 3010 | General Bull | 0.1% | 65% | 98.1% |
| 4A | 3038 | General Antlerless | 0% | 39% | 43.1% |
| 22 North | 3059 | General Antlerless | 0% | 39% | 95.5% |
| 4A North | 3081 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 0% | 57% | 43.1% |
| 5B North (Twin Arrows, Two Guns, Grapevine, and Diablo) | 3083 | Limited Opportunity Antlerless | 0% | 32% | 51.4% |
| 24A | 3093 | Limited Opportunity Any Elk | 0% | 56% | 74.6% |
| 28, 31 and 32 | 3094 | Limited Opportunity Any Elk | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3A and 3C | 3095 | CHAMP | 0% | 39% | 39.9% |
| 3B and 3C (Show Low Creek) | 3119 | Limited Opportunity (HAM) Antlerless | 0% | 55% | 53.9% |
| 3B and 3C (Show Low Creek) | 3120 | Limited Opportunity (HAM) Antlerless | 0% | 55% | 53.9% |
| 3B | 3169 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 0% | 54% | 28.4% |
| 27 (Alpine) | 3186 | Archery-Only Antlerless | 0% | 28% | 91.4% |
| CN | 3904 | General Antlerless | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3908 | General Antlerless | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3913 | General Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3914 | General Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3915 | General Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3916 | General Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3919 | General Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3920 | General Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3933 | Archery-Only Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
| CN | 3935 | Archery-Only Any Elk | 0% | 41% | — |
Draw odds here are real (AZGFD 2025 draw report — NR permits issued ÷ NR first-choice applicants per hunt). Harvest success is real (FINAL 2024 questionnaires, pooled per unit). Public-land % is real: each unit's GMU boundaries intersected with USGS PAD-US federal public land in an equal-area projection — Arizona's big state-trust inholdings are not counted, so on-the-ground access often runs higher.